Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.8pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.