Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.0 – 8.1?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 10¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on the usgs preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on earth between january 1 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 — https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.