The market moved
-1.0ppin 24h · now 10¢
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by July 30?
Other · resolves Dec 31 · vol $42.00
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 10¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on us government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: US Government.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.