Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 100¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 20.8pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.