Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 96¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 26.5pp shift. Resolution depends on us government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: US government.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 46.4h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.