Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 51¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 9.5pp shift. Resolution depends on portal.jne.gob.pe — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: portal.jne.gob.pe — https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal_documentos/files/637a2dda-73ba-4abc-95bf-294f14d454bb.pdf.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.