The market moved
-6.0ppin 24h · now 6¢
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?
Macro · resolves Jul 2 · vol $16.00
Why
Probability fell decisively down to 6¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 6.0pp shift. Resolution depends on bureau of labor — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Bureau of Labor — https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.