The market moved
-1.0ppin 24h · now 21¢
Will the Labour Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Politics · resolves Nov 7 · vol $50.00
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 21¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://elections.nz/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.