Will the Liberal Party win between 47% and 50% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 0¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on the popular vote share won by the liberal party — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the popular vote share won by the Liberal Party — https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.