The market moved
-0.3ppin 24h · now 13¢
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?
Other · resolves Oct 1 · vol $105.12
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 13¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.3pp shift. Resolution depends on to the minimum arctic sea ice extent for all days between august 1, 2026 and october 1, 2026, as published by the nation — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the Nation — https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.