Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Isaias?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 24¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the atlantic from the creation of this market through — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through — https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.