Will the National Rally group hold 13 or more French Senate seats after the 2026 election?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 17¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.