Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 13 and August 16, 2026?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 1¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 40.8pp shift. Resolution depends on nhc.noaa.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: nhc.noaa.gov — https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 15.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.