Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 7¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.8pp shift. Resolution depends on chatbot arena llm leaderboard — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard — https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.