The market moved
+0.0ppin 24h · now 47¢
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?
AI · resolves Dec 31 · vol $1.6K
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 47¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on chatbot arena llm leaderboard — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard — https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.