Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 99¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.