The market moved
-12.5ppin 24h · now 81¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?
AI · resolves Jul 31 · vol $10.0K
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 81¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 12.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.