Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 90¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s hle accuracy becomes available on the site — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site — https://agi.safe.ai/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.