Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 14¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard — https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.