Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 22¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 25.0pp shift. Resolution depends on chatbot arena llm leaderboard — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard — https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.