The market moved

+60.3ppin 24h · now 100¢

Will the number of US flights delayed on April 6 be between 6,500 and 7,000?

Other · resolves Apr 6 · vol $0.00

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 60.3pp shift. Resolution depends on the "total delays within, into, or out of the united states yesterday" figure on flightaware when it is checked at 12:00 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 — https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.