Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 83¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.