Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on August 11?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 16¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 42.5pp shift. Resolution depends on binance spot pair — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Binance spot pair — https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 13.4h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.