Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 9¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 35.0pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.