Will the Republicans win the Arizona Secretary of State race in 2026?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 16¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 28.5pp shift. Resolution depends on associated press — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Associated Press.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.