The market moved
-5.5ppin 24h · now 5¢
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?
Other · resolves Nov 1 · vol $627.94
Why
Probability fell decisively down to 5¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 5.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.