The market moved
+0.0ppin 24h · now 13¢
Will the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 10%?
Other · resolves Aug 26 · vol $868.46
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 13¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on federal reserve — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Federal Reserve — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.