Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.9%?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 28.4pp shift. Resolution depends on to the uk seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (aged 16+) reported by the office for national statistics (ons) in the l — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the UK seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (aged 16+) reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the L — https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/previousreleases.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.