The market moved
+3.2ppin 24h · now 28¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
Macro · resolves Dec 9 · vol $362.29
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 28¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.2pp shift. Resolution depends on federal reserve — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Federal Reserve — https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.