The market moved
-3.0ppin 24h · now 60¢
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?
Business · resolves Dec 31 · vol $159.59
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 60¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.0pp shift. Resolution depends on reuters — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: reuters — https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.