The market moved
+0.5ppin 24h · now 17¢
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by July 31, 2026?
Business · resolves Jul 31 · vol $234.63
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 17¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on reuters — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: reuters — https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.