The market moved
+3.0ppin 24h · now 100¢
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 1 of the 2026 flu season be at least 35?
Other · resolves Jan 12 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.0pp shift. Resolution depends on cdc.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: cdc.gov — https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.