The market moved
-4.5ppin 24h · now 32¢
Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?
Other · resolves Jul 31 · vol $22.50
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 32¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on department of defense programs and activities — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Defense programs and activities.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.