The market moved
-0.5ppin 24h · now 23¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
Other · resolves Dec 31 · vol $806.41
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 23¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible sources — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible sources.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.