Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 20.3pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

Resolution status: proposed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• UMA resolution status is "proposed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.
• Market resolves in 41.8h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.