Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the general tariff rate on imports into the united states from the people's republic of china on november 12, 2025, 1 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on November 12, 2025, 1.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.