The market moved
-4.0ppin 24h · now 4¢
Will the US Trade Deficit be between $50 billion and $60 billion in June 2026?
Crypto · resolves Aug 4 · vol $167.59
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 4¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on bureau of economic — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Bureau of Economic — https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.