Will the US Trade Deficit be between $90 billion and $100 billion in June 2026?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 10.8pp shift. Resolution depends on bureau of economic — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Bureau of Economic — https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.