Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 12-15%?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 9.2pp shift. Resolution depends on department of elections — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Elections — https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.