The market moved
-5.0ppin 24h · now 49¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 18?
Other · resolves Aug 18 · vol $58.52
Why
Probability fell decisively down to 49¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 5.0pp shift. Resolution depends on white house — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: White House — https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 26.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.