The market moved
-9.1ppin 24h · now 2¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 4?
Other · resolves Aug 4 · vol $2.3K
Why
Probability fell decisively down to 2¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 9.1pp shift. Resolution depends on white house — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: White House — https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 16.4h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.