Will there be 21-60 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026?

Why

Probability rose decisively up to 44¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 7.5pp shift. Resolution depends on ncdc.noaa.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: ncdc.noaa.gov — https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.