The market moved
-4.5ppin 24h · now 89¢
Will there be 20+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · resolves Jul 20 · vol $450.00
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 89¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on official fifa data — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Official FIFA data — https://www.theifab.com/laws/latest/video-assistant-referee-var-protocol/#reviewable-decisions-incidents).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.