The market moved
-4.5ppin 24h · now 36¢
Will there be 61-100 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
Weather · resolves Sep 15 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 36¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on ncdc.noaa.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: ncdc.noaa.gov — https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.