Will there be a power grid emergency in New England before October 1?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 42¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on department of energy records — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Energy records — https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.