The market moved

+0.0ppin 24h · now 100¢

Will there be an earthquake of magnitude 4.5 or higher in the conterminous U.S. by December 31st?

Weather · resolves Dec 31 · vol $0.00

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on earthquake.usgs.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: earthquake.usgs.gov — https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.