Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 23¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.9pp shift. Resolution depends on us government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: US government — https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.