Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 68¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the cdc case counter by may 31, 2026, 11:59 pm et — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the CDC case counter by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET — https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.