The market moved
-0.5ppin 24h · now 48¢
Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?
Other · resolves Jun 30 · vol $19.43
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 48¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the cdc case counter by june 30, 2026, 11:59 pm et — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: the CDC case counter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET — https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.