Will there be at least 250k initial jobless claims during the week ending February 14, 2026?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 23.4pp shift. Resolution depends on department of labor — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Labor — https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.